What if: Consolidation

[Lobot]

What if rather than expand everything consolidates. Or divides into 2 FBS divisions?

http://www.foxsports.com/college-foo...re-dame-051616

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/coll...ig-realignment

[red_n_black_attack]

I have to point out that adding G5 teams and banking on future success/growth is a risk. If I had my druthers as Big 12 president/commish, I'd hold out hope for FSU, Louisville and Clemson (or a return of Nebraska or even North Carolina). I personally would love to be in a football conference with Fla St since the last time we were in their conference it was all sports except football. I just don't see that happening until the Big 12 becomes viable, and the only way I see that happening is network/expansion with CCG.

I see this round of potential expansion as a fight for the fourth Super Conference between Big 12 and ACC. If the Big 12 were able to get a conference network, then they could prevent the ACC from gaining one (I don't think there is enough money/advertising for both). The SEC and B!G 10 are too powerful with their coffers overflowing with dinero. The Pac-12 will survive and is able to stand pat until either ACC or Big 12 implodes. The remnant of the ACC could easily be swallowed by SEC, B!G 10 and Big 12. Likewise, the remnants of the Big 12 could be swallowed by Pac-12, SEC, and B!G 10 (with maybe a team or two going to ACC though not a good fit.

In the end there will be four 16-team Super conferences and they will break away from the NCAA. They will essentially be minor leagues (with commensurate pay) for NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, MLS, etc... and all 64 teams will be ranked for a post season basketball tournament that will bring even more money into the coffers. They will make an 8 or 16 team playoff work to get a true champion while renegotiating bowl contracts to get another round of teams into a bowl game.

The market as it is today is nearly saturated; however, the advantage goes to the Big 12 because of the LHN. ESPN wants it gone and Texas wants their money. If a deal can be reached to create a conference network, pay Texas, and give significantly better (and more) programming content, ESPN might go for it. ESPN is not doing that for the ACC today. Whew, that was a long winded explanation why the Big 12 should expand and only add a minimum of teams (two today). The ACC GOR will expire and with it the ACC. The SEC and B!G 10 are salivating at adding ACC schools (Virginia/N Carolina to B!G 10 most prominently rumored).

I think Boren has both the balls and foresight. Can he be the final spoke in the cog of a machine that eventually spells doom to the NCAA? Maybe, though it's exciting to watch the drama unfold. As a Bearcat fan/alumnus, I can only sit back and pray/watch, but as a college football fan I see my favorite sport at a turning point that could drive it to even higher heights or turn off several million casual fans/viewers since fan is short for fanatics like me.

[RedDog]

Interesting perspective and I agree with most of it. I have contended all along that the Big 12 is precarious at best and only of interest to me because its our ONLY power 5 option. They clearly don't want us unless they conclude expansion and UC are their only option. My biggest fear is we make an expensive and risky jump just in time to see it all crumble and the schools we sought to align with go elsewhere and we are once again stuck. I agree the Big 10 and SEC are the Daddy and the only ones totally secure. The ACC isn't far behind and its not going anywhere, and could benefit the most from future consolidations. The Big 12 is unstable, the PAC 12 is stable but on the outside looking in, and UC and the next level of players are hopeful but realistically not gonna be invited to the party. Realignment is coming and all the rules are gonna change again and I envision the same primary players controlling a restructured D1 and UC in a group just below that. We are respected as a program and university but just not viewed as a prime time player and I would be shocked if this played out well for us.

[swilsonsp4]

Yesterday, I heard Tim Brando on XM College Sports suggest that the G5 conferences should pool their efforts & negotiate joint media contracts, believing that this would provide them more leverage. He recommended that Mike Aresco head up the effort, because of his CBS experience.

I can't imagine that this would aid in getting better Saturday TV times.

[coach]

Yes, that's why it's critical that unless there is some expansion imminent, the east coast and west coast g5 get together on a football/basketball alliance. There are enough good teams currently to put a more competitive format together than what exists now and it's critical they do it now in order to monetize it.

[swilsonsp4]

One thing I forgot to mention about Brando's comments was that any G5 combo should include an overall championship game. He didn't say this, but any such arrangement would, in effect, create a large conference with semi-autonomous regional subsets.

[red_n_black_attack]

Interesting perspective and I agree with most of it. I have contended all along that the Big 12 is precarious at best and only of interest to me because its our ONLY power 5 option. They clearly don't want us unless they conclude expansion and UC are their only option. My biggest fear is we make an expensive and risky jump just in time to see it all crumble and the schools we sought to align with go elsewhere and we are once again stuck. I agree the Big 10 and SEC are the Daddy and the only ones totally secure. The ACC isn't far behind and its not going anywhere, and could benefit the most from future consolidations. The Big 12 is unstable, the PAC 12 is stable but on the outside looking in, and UC and the next level of players are hopeful but realistically not gonna be invited to the party. Realignment is coming and all the rules are gonna change again and I envision the same primary players controlling a restructured D1 and UC in a group just below that. We are respected as a program and university but just not viewed as a prime time player and I would be shocked if this played out well for us.

I think football is driving this more than anything and the ACC is only partially more stable than the Big 12 because the GOR is stopping teams from "defecting" like Maryland. Top to bottom, the Big 12 is a football first conference with deep investment in B-ball too. The ACC has Fla St, Miami and a few teams that rise and fall. The ACC doesn't have leverage to form their own network at this time. The Big 12 has the chance to fold the LHN into a conference network. If that happens, the Big 12 could go to 12 teams now, then afford to sit back as pick off four ACC teams by 2024. If there isn't a Big 12 network in place by 2020, then the ACC might have a shot at surviving.

While OU is a viable to target to both SEC and the B!G, I suspect that won't happen because being a top dog in Big 12 is better to them than those two options if there is a Big 12 network. I say a top dog (even with the Texas-sized ego of Texas) because that conference is really all about OU and UT. I can see Texas cutting off their noses by refusing to let the LHN fold into a Big 12 network because they know they will have a landing spot, as will KU. The same isn't necessarily true for K State, Ok St, TCU, TT, Baylor, ISU, WVU, or ISU. B-ball will get Kansas a landing spot (the B!G or the SEC). I can also see some folks at UT seeking some sort of compromise (whether it's network name somehow incorporating Texas/Longhorn or UT getting more than $15 million they currently get), something could be worked out. Nothing new here, we have known all along it comes down to Texas.

[Lobot]

I think the key to getting LHN repackaged is paying UT that 15M a year they were getting in revenue from it. That makes it worth their while. It still leaves the rest of the B12 with less money than UT would be getting for TV in the deal but it's better than going without a network. Question here becomes whether or not the B12 has that kind of cash laying around to pay out to UT.

[red_n_black_attack]

I think the key to getting LHN repackaged is paying UT that 15M a year they were getting in revenue from it. That makes it worth their while. It still leaves the rest of the B12 with less money than UT would be getting for TV in the deal but it's better than going without a network. Question here becomes whether or not the B12 has that kind of cash laying around to pay out to UT.

That money would be a loss for Texas. The branding equity and exposure are also a factor, so I believe they would "require" more than $15 million per year to "consider" it. The money would have to be made available from the provider in the network contract, which is the one piece of data I haven't seen or even had rumors alluding to. I "think" a Big 12 network would have more value than the LHN and that it would have enough value to pay Texas and all schools more than they get for third tier rights today. Is there anything that points to ESPN (or Fox or CBS) actually stating those monies are available for the commitment? My opinion is fraught with errors and I don't have a Texas sized ego.

[Lobot]

I posted this in the other thread as well. You're correct. They're not interested in losing the branding equity. http://www.hookem.com/story/examinin...ion-stand-pat/

[Lobot]

As for ESPN, it appears they don't have money to commit for anything right now. They're in a full fledged meltdown on the budget side. FOX appears to have the money because they're the one inheriting all of ESPN's former on air talent right now. Haven't heard much from CBS. I do know that NBC is after the other half of the B1G rights and appears to trying to jump back into CFB outside of carrying Notre Dame.