Unsettling Prospect

I mentioned this on another forum, but I'll post it here.  First I'll start out by saying that I think Syracuse, Kansas State and Drexel were more deserving than Arkansas, Purdue, Illinois and Stanford....  but moving past that i broke down all the resumes and I just don't think any of the teams that were left out have a huge gripe.  They all had their chances, and ultimately fell short.



Davidson made the tourney by winning

their conference tourney... They would not be in if they did not win it... That

simple 



Air Force Missed the tourney(even though they beat tourney

team Stanford by about 40).... and i think they rightfully missed it 



Missouri St and Bradley both missed the tourney completely

and rightfully so 



Drexel- was an interesting case, probably make the tourney

if three bids were not lost.... They beat Villanova and Syracuse on the road. They had 14 true road wins(Michigan State

had one as an example)? Yet finished 4th

in the very tough and underrated CAA. They were the 4th best team in that

conference. The committee cannot ignore that. But it does say a lot for the CAA

that drexel was the 4th best team. (last year the 2nd best team made the final

4) 



VCU- won their conference tourney, but they were the best

team in the CAA, and had a very good overall resume. They would have and should

have made it if they lost in their conference tourney 



Utah State- made it because they WON their conference tourney... THey would

not have been in otherwise. Last year Utah State

making it was utterly ridiculous? but had nothing to do with RPI..their RPI was

shaky and they beat no one in the top 50. 



Xavier- Beat Villanova, VCU, Illinois and Kansas State by

10 



ODU- beat Georgetown, they had won 12 in a row before

their final game, beat Drexel twice(who you already say was a tourney team)

they finished 2nd in a damn good league 



Butler- beat ND, Tennessee, Indiana, Gonzaga Purdue...

please argue with them..please 



Memphis- I agree overseeded based on accomplishments. But that team can

play... they are clearly one of the 15 best teams in the country. 



UNLV- Non conference wins over Nevada

and Texas

Tech...both were clearly tourney teams. Finished second in a damn good

conference ahead of team like Airforce which beat Stanford by like 40. They

also WON their conference tourney..so they were in no matter what. 



BYU- 25-8 won their regular season title in a very tough

conference. They are a little more complicated because all of their big wins

are within conference. But this is a good conference that proved itself

throughout the year and they won it. I would have no problem with them being

seeded lower...but they deserve to be in over 8th place Big East/ACC teams 



Creighton- a very good overall resume...but ignore anyways...

They WON their conference tourney...and thus are automatically in 



Nevada- has one of the nations best player. They lost four game all

season. Like Memphis

they did not play anyone...which is why they were seeded so low... But also

like memphis they

are clearly one of the 65 best teams. 







Where the committee really messed up this year is with the

Big 10 teams... who may have all been pretty undeserving, with Stanford, and

with Arkansas.

I also think teams like UK's

inflated computer rankings were counted for too much. So lets look at them 



Michigan State- They did beat an incredibly young Texas team that had not

gotten it together yet early in the season. But here is the really glaring

stat. They have ONE road win all season. Just like the rest of the mediocre to

poor Big 10 they could not beat anyone away from home(OSU/Wisconsin not

included). By the way their ONE road win was at Penn State.

Still i thought this teams should have been barely win, because beating Texas and Wisconsin..not

matter where should count for something. 



Purdue- they were smacked by Georgia Tech, lost to Butler, lost to one of the lower Missouri

Valley teams Indiana State

by 19!!! Their win over virginia

in the ACC/big 10 challenge looms very large for them. Their ONLY road win in

big ten play was once again Penn

 State. Like the other big

10 teams they did all their damage at home. They did smack Illinois,

Michigan State,

and Indiana

at home... so i guess beating up on mediocre big 10 teams on the home court

does count. 



Illinois- This team should not have made the tourney. Their best

non-conference win was Missouri...

Missouri.

Lost to midmajor Xavier. as with the other three their only conference road win

was Penn State. Ok they can beat crappy Penn State

away from home.. proves nothing. THey got in on the strength of beating Indiana twice. Who is

not that good themselves. 



Indiana's best win all season was over midmajor Southern

 Illinois(i think that is a damn fine win, but it is only one) as

for road wins. Indiana managed to win At

Northwester as well as Penn

 State..so i guess that

makes them number one in the pecking order of big 10 teams. I think they should

have been in on the strength of HOME wins over Southern Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan

State, Purdue and Illinois...but the later three are not that

impressive. It is a million times tougher to win at home. And none of these Big

ten teams Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State and Indiana have ONE...a combined

ONE quality win on the road. 



Arkansas- First and foremost they went 7-9 in the SEC west finishing

behind AK's Mississippi squad and Mississipi State. They did manage to beat Bubble

team West Virginia

at home..and a good game to hang the hat on winning AT Southern

 illinois. Other than that they have two conference wins over

Vandy... That is about it. I say they are actually more deserving than those

Big 10 schools(maybe other than Indiana)...

but there were some better teams left out. (including drexel, and don't sleep

on Appalachin State) 



Stanford- they have a lot of really good wins. So i can

understand how they got in. But they lost 79-45 to third place Mountain West

team Air Force(yea third behind BYU and UNLV)... Lost by 16 to Santa Clara... Lost to another mid major

gonzaga(critisizing all these teams but they have no issue beating stanford).

Non conference they do have a home win over Texas Tech to hang their hats on.

In conference they had some very big wins.. that's how they got in.. they beat

UCLA, Washington State,

USC, and Oregon(all

at home it should be noted). The advantage Majors have is they get many many

shots to beat top teams. Stanford was like only 4-8 vs. the RPI top 50.. So yea

they have four wins(all at home...but it took them 12 games)... if you gave

southern illinois

that many shots i have no doubt they would do better. I think it is telling

that Stanford got smacked by Air Force, Santa

  Clara and lost a close one to Gonzaga. 



Kentucky- their inflated RPI comes from LOSSES.. they lost to UCLA,

@Memphis, @UNC, they did beat Louisville back

when Louisville

was terrible. Their best conference wins were home games against tennessee and Arkansas,

But they lost twice to FLorida, twice to

vandy, @ Tennessee, @Alabama, @ Georgia, to Miss State

on a neutral floor. Again when you get a ton of chances against top 50 teams

you are bound to win one or two.,. These mid majors don't get as many shots so

of course they'll have less win against them. UK was 5-9 vs. the RPI top 50...

they were home games of course. and I'd argue the Louisville one was against a team that had

not figured it out yet. 







Lastly we'll look at the teams you mention that got left

out 



Syracuse- They were 3-7 vs. the RPI top 50... That is first. Their

non-conference SOS was below 100 and they never left Syracuse... never. They lost at home to

Drexel(4th in the CAA), and at home to Witchita

State(5th in the Missouri Valley)...

yea there you go for those crappy conferences.... All that being said I think Syracuse should have been

in ahead of those big 10 teams.. Particularly Illinois. None of those Big 10 teams had

much to brag about out of conference(though they did do more than Syracuse in that

regard)... But at least the ORangemen proved they could win on the road. they

were 5-4 away from home. Including good wins at Marquette

and Providence(really Marquette is their only significant road

win)... Of course both those road wins are better than Penn State(who

was the only team the big ten teams could beat on the road this year). The wins

over Georgetown, Marquette and Villanova are very good wins...

But again those were THREE wins... in 10 tries against the RPI top 50... That

does not scream tourney team. 



Kansas State- I advocated for

Kansas State because I think they are clearly

one of the best 34 atlarges right now. But less look at their overall resume...

2-6 vs. the RPI top 50. 24 Point Lost at low Mountain West New Mexico(the same

conference that BYU and UNLV finished 1,2). Also lost to mountain west Colorado State,

30 point loss to California.

10 point loss to Xavier, 11 point loss at Nebraska. That does not scream at large. Now

i think that the early season should be taken with a grain of salt because this

was clearly a different team at the end. They won 12 of 17 to end it...3 of

those losses were to Kansas.

They won @ Texas(4 seed), on a Neutral floor against USC(#5 seed), and recently

on a Neutral floor against Texas Tech....anyone who watched KState v Texas Tech

could not say Tech is a better team.. yet tech got in. Still when the body of

work is viewed it is easy to see why Kstate got left out. Despite finishing

fourth in a conference where the top 3 are incredibly good. 



West Virginia- beat two quality teams all year UCLA(great win), and Villanova.

Their nonconference schedule was ranked 279...that is awful. Practically all

their wins came at the Big East bottom Seton Hall, Rutgers, South Florida, Cincinnati... They also

lost to Cincinnati.

This was not a tourney team. 



Oklahoma State had some great wins...but ultimately they went 6-10 in the

conference. That does not do it. They beat Syracuse,

Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh,

and Kansas State... Ultimately though it was

probably losses to Baylor, Missouri

and Nebraska

that did them in. Had they won two of those to get to 8-8 they would be a

tourney team. It's hard to have sympathy for them because of that. 



Florida State- Another team with some very impressive

wins. They were smacked by Wisconsin and Pittsburgh early...but have very good wins over Florida, Virginia Tech, Duke and Maryland. My biggest problem is they lost

their last 5 games to tourney caliber teams. I can see why they were left out.

Had they stolen 1 of 5 they probably get in. 



I think it can be seen there can be cases made for many of

these teams, but there are also cases against them. I believe the biggest mistakes

were Arkansas and Illinois, followed by Stanford, and the

other three big 10 teams... not with the mid majors who have fine resumes and

actually won some games away from home.





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