Re: How far away are we?

[dfairchild]

There are 2 big gaps between last year team and this coming year's team.

1) Senior leadership - a large part of our success came from the experience
of Hicks, White, Moore, Kirkland (till he got injured), and Muhammed.  You
are talking 13 years of Div 1 basketball and 2 years of JUCO experience.
Next year we will have 4 years of Div 1 experience! and 4 years of JUCO
experience?

2) NBA level talent - Hicks and White will be in NBA camps next fall, is
there any player on the 06-07 roster who will ever be in an NBA camp?

Go Cats!
DF

-----Original Message-----
From: address@hidden
[mailto:address@hidden Behalf Of Robert Wingerberg
Sent: Friday, March 31, 2006 11:03 AM
To: address@hidden
Subject: [UC Basketball] How far away are we?


This is gonna be a long post guys, take it for what it's worth, this is my
opinion, just looking to stir conversation. Sitting in class today, reading
the paper, I got the UC basketball fever already. Disappointment set aside
from Huggs, and AK's treatment its time to move forward. Since 2001-2002,
I've done player projections for each seasons roster, projecting each
players skill value, and how it correlates to the following years success.
Each year I do a spring report, usually in April and I do one in November,
for purposes such as whose left team and so on. Here's my scales-
90-100= Star player quality, team leadership ability etc..
80-89= Impact player, Star potential, Starter on good/great teams.
70-79= Starter on most average/good teams, potentially a future great player
depending on eligibility and other contributing factors, where most D-1
players fall.
60-69= Role player on average/good teams, bench guy.
50-59= 11th or 12th man, end of rotation guy
40-49= Walk on ability
I've always used the previous years results as my measuring stick on rating
a player. Obviously with incoming high school recruits and JUCO guys this is
more difficult. Essentially, I rate JUCO guys on about half of their JUCO
production being accumulated to D-1 level, depending on PT. With high
schoolers, PT and expert analysis from recruiting sites are taken into
account and then I form my own opinion after their first year playing bball.
My 06-07 skill ratings as of 3/31/06-
Devan Downey=83
Cedric Mcgowan=78
Abdul Herrera=65
Dominic Tilford=67
Ronald Allen=61
John Williamson=76
Marvin Gentry=72
Of course all of this is contigent on the 5 scholarship guys returning, and
the 2 recruits so far signing LOI's. So my question is how far away are we
from being competitive as far as 06-07 goes? I see these 7 guys as a 12-15
win team, but for comparitive purposes. Here was my 05-06 projection as of
November 05.
Eric Hicks=88
James White=85
Jihad Muhammad=78
Armein Kirkland=79
Chadd Moore=73
Devan Downey=76
Abdul Herrera= 63
DeAndre Coleman=66
Dominic Tilford=62
Ronald Allen=58
Cedric Mcgowan=74
For what it's worth I predicted the 05-06 Cats would finish around 22-11
w/more BE tourney games, no NIT and a 1st or 2nd round loss in the NCAA's.
So I'm asking you guys how far away is the 06-07 team from being on par with
this past year's NIT, in my estimation not as far as once thought. I believe
John Williamson will have just as much of an impact and probably a bit more
than Ced did last year. Marvin is basically on par with Chadd in that he
gives you really the opposite of Chadd, a little more offense/less defense
but fills Chadd' void.
In my opinion, yet again, (sorry for the long post) we need 4-5 more
recruits being as follows.
*A skilled post player, an impact type player immediately, having the same
impact Devan had this year, probably from the juco ranks, High 70's low 80's
rating.
*A solid wing, a little more length for def. and off. purposes, mid to high
70's guy, again probably a juco kid, but maybe a Kiwan Smith type high
schooler.
*An adequate backup post, Low 70's type, preferably a HS kid
*Another 2-guard, Low 70's, HS, Bobby Maze?
*1or 2 other role players high 60's low 70's types to fill a scholarship or
2 and leaving a couple for next year.
This, in my opinion, will be enough to compete with this years team and will
have more depth, will it happen? probably not, but Mick is just getting
started. That's my two cents, sorry again for the long post!


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