RE: talking basketball

[Shinkle, Randy]

Well, I guess I should get this in before the first game is played ....

There are a number of things one can consider regarding rotations:
    1) What are each player's individual strengths?
    2) What is each player's best way to help the team?
    3) What are each player's future prospects?
    4) How much does experience really count?
    5) What's the best way to organize practice?
    6) What does the future hold?
    7) ....

Since I never think in terms of just "this year," I'm probably out of
sync with what Kennedy is going to do, and rightly so for him.
Nevertheless, here's what I'd do, biased toward numbers 2 and 6 above
and with less regard for the others, especially number 5 (which is a big
problem with all this) ....


I'd set this team up with a more classic rotation of 1 center, 2
forwards and 2 guards.  No true point guard, no interchangeable 4 and 5
(for the most part), no "wings" that are common today.  In the latest
parlance you might call this "4 out, 1 in."

The center would be a back-to-the-basket player, moving between the
blocks and the high post.  Perimeter scoring would emphasize the 3, with
lots of players (including the forwards) taking a few attempts each
game, hopefully wide open ones.  There would be lots of open 3's because
the guards would emphasize penetrate-and-pitch, and because so many
different players would be shooting them.

Defensively, I would mix zone and man-to-man much more equally than
we're used to seeing, changing often during a game, and I'd let players
take more risks than normal trying for steals in the passing lanes.
(This is in lieu of a lot of pressing, because the center guarding the
goal in the press is the most vulnerable position on the team, with
respect to fouls and the health of the starter.)  The center and
forwards would go hard to the glass, but as soon as the first rebound
went to one side of the basket, I'd have the forward on the other side
release up-court, along with the guards (who won't be rebounding much,
if at all), looking for as many fast breaks as possible.  This will give
up more offensive rebounds than desirable, but something has to give,
because UC will need transition scoring to compete this year.

With that intro, here's a projection by position ....


CENTER

Hicks starts and plays as much as possible.  He stays inside on both
ends, period.  No floating outside for an occasional 3 attempt.  Eric is
UC's only real hope for stick-backs and blocked shots, and they'll need
both.

Allen and Herrera (if he plays at all) fight for minutes.  There's just
no telling whether these guys will be effective, especially at first.
But next year, they *are* the centers, unless the new coach gets really
lucky finding a Juco big man in the spring.  Yes, there will be some
late bloomers in HS with size (e.g., Jared Carter last spring), but UC
won't get any of them (e.g., Jared Carter last spring).  There's also a
major risk Herrera doesn't return.  IMO, he's the most likely to leave,
especially if Martin isn't retained on the staff.


FORWARDS

Kirkland and McGowan start.  Coleman backs them up.  The 3 play fairly
interchangeably.  Murray also gets some minutes (if he's really back,
which he appears to be).  This is the key to this team, if it operates
as I'm describing.  These guys have to rebound hard and make some 3's.
If they do, then this becomes a relative strength of next year's team,
with Coleman and McGowan starting and Murray getting more minutes.
Hopefully the new coach can find another Coleman in the spring.

This is also the biggest risk on this team.  If Kirkland is not more
consistent, or the newcomers struggle, there's big trouble, because
these 3 guys need to account for about 25 minutes each.  Otherwise, this
team gets killed on the boards.  There may be some help available here
from White, and from Hicks if the backup centers can play.


GUARDS

Muhammad and White start.  Downey and Moore back them up.  As with the
forwards, all 4 play interchangeably, include White (last year's assists
leader).  Like the others, Downey plays off the ball some to make use of
his scoring ability.  He is also the most likely to become a starter,
supplanting Muhammad and increasing his minutes.  I'd be very careful to
pace Moore so he lasts the full season.  The big question will be the
smaller guys' defense, hence the greater emphasis on playing zone.

Tilford and the other 3 walk-ons may earn some minutes, but the more
they play, the more likely UC is struggling because of injuries or
because the forwards and centers aren't working out.  Next year Downey
is a true point and team leader, Tilford backs him up, and the new coach
brings in lots of Juco and HS shooters.  He has to, there's no other
choice.


Given the above, here's a minutes projection:
    Center:  Hicks 32+, Allen/Herrera 8-
    Forwards:  Kirkland 25, McGowan 25, Coleman 20, Murray 5, White 5
    Guards:  White 25, Muhammad 20, Downey 20, Moore 10+, Tilford et al
5-


A final note:  If Hicks gets hurt, "fuhgedabowdit."

Randy '78



-----Original Message-----
From: dfairchild [mailto:address@hidden 
Sent: Tuesday, November 01, 2005 3:19 AM
To: BCatForum
Subject: [UC Basketball] talking basketball

It's odd - people say they want to talk about the team, basketball, the
season, etc - but when I posted about this years rotations - no one
responded . . .

Since I have to say it - the post was pretty good - so I'm going to
repost
some of the info:

The upcoming season 3 big questions and one lingering one -
BIG
1) Who will handle the point?
2) Who will get the 40 minutes at the 5 position?
3) How will a first year head coach do?
Lingering
1) Will Kirkland play to his potential?

The Bearcats do not nearly look as good as they did last May - since
then
we've lost Vincent Banks, Roy Bright, Tyree Evans, Ivan Johnson and
coach
Huggins!

This years projected rotation -
Point - White 15, Moore 10, Downey 10, Jihad 5
2 guard - Jihad 23, Kirkland 5, Tilford 12
3 forward - White 17, Kirkland 17, Coleman 6
4 forward - Hicks 20, Kirkland 10 Coleman 10
5 forward - McGowan 20, Hicks 12, Allen 8 (Herrera if he gets cleared
will
get at lease these 8 minutes)

Hicks 32
White 32
Kirkland 32
Muhammed 28
McGowan 20
Coleman 16
Tilford 10
Moore 10
Downey 10
Allen 8

To be honest, I can't figure out the front line - the above scenario
assumes
Kirkland will be willing to play in the four spot - a huge assumption
and it
still remains to be seen if Kirkland can come prepared to play every
night.
The other alternatives are to get more minutes out of McGowan and Allen
or
Herrera if he gets cleared to play.

For what it is worth - here's my last year's prediction and (actual):

Maxiell 33 (31)
Hicks 32 (31)
White 30 (29)
Kirkland 30 (25)
Moore 25 (15)
Williams 20 (22)
Muhammad 15 (26)
Banks 5 (0)
Bright 5 (14)
Souleyman 5 (1)
Lucas (12)
Patswald (3)
Meeker (2)
Murray (2)






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