A look at the last half of the CUSA season

From: Jon Macomber
Date: 02 Feb 2004 - 01:27 AM EST

With the CUSA season halfway over and a non-conference game against X up next, it's time to check out the conference standings.

UL missed a great chance to move 2 games of ahead of almost everyone else with their loss to Marquette, and UC missed its chance to grab first place with the stumble against UNCC.

Conference standings for contenders, their RPIs, and their remaining SOS as of 2/1/04

UL 6-1 4 .689

UAB 6-1 30 .611

UC 6-2 16 .648

Memphis 5-2 34 .681

UNCC 5-2 32 .557

Marquette 4-3 48 .589

St. Louis 4-3 99 .675

DePaul 4-3 66 .614

Interesting notes: UC has 2 non-conference games left (X and Wake) - and NONE of the other contenders have even one non-conference game. UL has a brutal schedule left - 6 of 9 games on the road and they play ALL the contenders. So everyone above gets a shot at UL. UNCC has the easiest remaining schedule and they only have 3 games left against any of the above contenders.

IMPORTANT UPCOMING GAMES:

UL at Memphis on Wednesday - then after only 2 days rest UL is home against first place UAB - and the Blazers (7-1 in last 8 games) have all week to prepare for that game.

St. Louis gets a week to get ready to play at Memphis on Saturday (UM will be coming off their game vs. UL Wednesday). This could see one of the teams at 4 losses and way back in the pack, as STL and Memphis both have tough remaining schedules.

DePaul is home vs. Marquette Saturday - Loser gets their 4th loss (at least) and falls back in the pack. Marquette has underperformed with 3 losses already and can't afford many more.

So Marquette, St. Louis, and DePaul need wins to stay in the upper tier, UL and UAB will battle for a chance to pull further ahead, while UC and UNCC each have 1 easier conference game this week (UC at UH, UNCC at ECU) and will probably stay within a game of the conference lead.

TEAM NOTES:

LOUISVILLE: Absolutely brutal schedule left. 6 of their 9 remaining games are on the road. Everyone has a shot at them - 8 of 9 games are against contenders, and the other game is on the road (at TCU). I don't know how they can avoid at least 1 or 2 more losses.

UAB: They have a week to get ready for their big game Saturday against UL which will go a long way in telling if they belong or not. They won 7 of their last 8, but their only quality win was at UNCC on 1/24. After the big UL game they have 2 easier games (USM, ECU) before hosting UC on 2/18. So if they can beat UL they have a chance to stay on top for a while.

CINCINNATI: In the next 2 weeks UC plays 2 big non-conference games, but 2 easier conference games (Houston, USF). Tough stretch starting with 2/15 at Wake, then 2 days to get ready to play at UAB, then 2 days to get ready to rematch at home vs. UL. So while they should stay near the top of the standings for the next 2 weeks, they'll have a tough week with little preparation as they play 2 games against the conference leaders.

MEMPHIS: Home game vs. UL Wednesday either keeps them up top or back into the mix. Tough schedule and hardest road schedule (.743) - they still play at UL, at UC, and at Marquette. They're on a 5 game winning streak, but the only quality win was vs. UNCC.

UNCC: Easiest schedule left (.557) - and easiest road schedule left (.494). Only 3 games left vs. contenders, and they get UL and UC at home. They do have a rough stretch vs. UL on 2/12 and then only 1 day off before at STL on 2/14. After that their only big game left is 2/28 home vs. UC. Besides the UC game, 5 of their last 6 games are very winnable (USF, USM, TCU, UH, UT). So if they win a few of their bigger games they have an excellent chance of winning the conference, as the leaders play each other more.

MARQUETTE: Tough stretch of 3 losses in a row gave them a slow start, but the win at UL Saturday showed they are still dangerous. They don't play UC again, and have UL and Memphis at home. Pretty easy schedule left (.589) with only 1 hard game a week - but they have a trouble spot ahead with 2/26 at USF, then 1 day off before 2/28 at UAB.

ST. LOUIS: Their schedule is tough, probably too tough to make a big run. While their 3 losses were at Marquette, at UNCC, and at UAB, they have no great wins. They have a week to prepare for a game at Memphis, and after that 3 difficult home games (DePaul, UNCC, Marquette). So while they beat the teams they should, they need to do well during that stretch against better teams. STL is always dangerous, but unless they make a move soon, they won't stay above .500 for long.

DEPAUL: Possible sleeper team - they did beat Memphis and they gave UAB its only loss -and their 3 losses were tough (UNCC, at UC, at Marquette). They get rematches at home vs. UC and Marquette.

This season is already a great one for CUSA. We all knew UC and UL would be up top with Memphis and Marquette not far behind. But UAB has played well and they have a chance to prove they belong with their game at UL on Saturday. We all saw that UNCC is for real, and their easy schedule makes them a championship contender.

UL is still the team to beat, but they play so many tough games and they're on the road so much that they seem destined to stumble at least once. It will be hard for the division winner to have fewer than 3 losses. UL's games this week at Memphis and vs. UAB will do a lot to stabilize the pecking order up top.

TOURNAMENT POSSIBILITIES: With 8 or 9 games still left before the CUSA tournament, it's still a guess as to who will be in position to make the NCAA, but some things are obvious. Right now CUSA (the 4th highest rated conference!) has 5 teams with RPIs of 34 or lower - and it's realistic to assume that right now those 5 teams get in. UL and UC will make it, but their seeding is still up in the air. UAB (13-5), UNCC (13-5), and Memphis (14-4) all have RPIs in the low 30s and they all have a chance for 20 wins with just a 6-3 finish plus a CUSA tourney win or two. Despite a slow start, Marquette (13-5, 48 RPI) has a chance to build on their big win at UL and make their case for a possible 6th CUSA team.

Jon M

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