How many wins will it take to Be Cusa Champ?

[Reber, Steven Edwin (Steve)]

Every year I watch as the "nobodys" come out and identify themselves, losing 2 of the first 3 games.  At a certain point there are just a few contenders left, looking at the loss column 0,1,2 whatever.   My question is what do you predict it will take to win conf USA this year 16-0, 15-1, 14-2, 13-3, certainly not 12-4.... 

BTW, I prefer the years UC is 14-0 and everybody else already has 3 losses. 
How good is Louisville(Mem/Marq 2/Char/Cincy 2) 6 hard games 
How good is Memphis(Cincy/Char/Louis/Marq)     4 hard games
How good is Marquette(Cincy/Char/Louisville 2/Memphis) 5 hard games

Does Charlotte/St Louis/East Carolina belong as hard games (Louisville/Charlotte/Memphis all have to make the road trip to ECU)
Cincinnati/Marquette are  the only ones that have to go to UAB (which used to be a hostile crowd environment). 
At least Memphis and Marquette have to play each other this year. 

Steve in Columbus