The latest theory on conference changes ...

[Shinkle, Randy]

... looks like this:

  - The ACC drops their current expansion effort.
  - Over the next year, the ACC successfully petitions the NCAA to change the requirement for a conference championship game in football from 12 members to 10.
  - Then, a year from now, the ACC invites Miami only, effective in 2005.
  - Louisville joins the Big East in Miami's place.

The stories all stop here, but allow me to continue with my take ....

The Big East is left as the only current BCS conference with fewer than 10 members in football.  They correct this by adding UC and (here's my big leap) Penn State, which drops the Big Ten back to ... 10!  The Big East divisions for football are:
    East:  Boston College, Connecticut, Penn State, Rutgers, Syracuse
    West:  Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
A football championship game is first played in December, 2005.

The 6 non-football Big East members (including Notre Dame) probably remain in a 16 member conference for other sports.

Beginning in 2005 or soon after, the ACC, Big Ten and Pac-10 also create divisions (for football only) and stage championship games.  The Mountain West joins the club by expanding by 2, and C-USA (now 12 teams for basketball and other sports, 9 teams for football) continues its search for one football-only team.  Alternatively, DePaul, Marquette and Saint Louis join forces with the non-football Big East schools, leaving C-USA to add one all-sports member to get to 10.

If Penn State sticks with the Big Ten, then the Big East can choose between East Carolina, Memphis and South Florida, and C-USA would need to pick up 2 schools.  Or, the Big East could invite Temple back, this time for all sports.

The 10 team conference is a reasonable solution to the current mess.  Less shifting is required, and divisions are only needed for football.  A double round robin schedule in basketball is 18 games, which is workable.  And UC finally has a long term home at the highest (i.e., BCS) level, the only negative being the likely loss of Memphis as a conference member.

Randy '78