Are we in the NCAAs yet?

[Chris]

No analyst or commentator is questioning the Bearcats getting a bid to the NCAAs at this snapshot in time, but is it truly "locked up"? Southern Miss looks like a bad team, so a loss to them would not be wise. They would finish 17-11 with a poor road/neutral record, 4-6 in the last ten and their first "bad loss" as the selection committee rates them in their last game. While I think they should still be considered one of the top 64 teams, even I would feel they hadn't "played their way in" with that finish. So Southern Miss is a must win IMHO to be reasonably safe. We would finish no worse than 18-11 that way and clinch a 5-5 record in our last ten games. Looking at the path of other bubble teams, I think 18 wins probably does it.

Now, I sure am glad we at least beat St. Louis once because it will not be easy to beat them. They are 8-2 in their last then games, so do you think a loss to them allows any chance that they steal our bid as the fourth C-USA team since they would have beaten us 2 out of 3? I don't think they distinguished themselves out of conference that well, so probably not (Oklahoma State may have clinched it for us since the Oregon win doesn't look that great now). Or could Depaul make a run and do the same? At least we didn't have a team with a low RPI like Charlotte end up as our second game because St. Louis at least has a decent RPI.

Analysts and commentary aside, my only way to feel completely safe on selection Sunday is to win the first two, which gets us 19 wins and the clear spot as a fourth C-USA team having beaten St. Louis. You just never know what gets talked about in that room. I would hate for one of the first questions after the selections are announced to be "So, what was the thinking behind leaving Cincinnati out?" Answer: "Well, St. Louis finished 8-2 or 9-1 in their last ten games and also beat Cincinnati 2 out of 3 times". My worst nightmare :).

Maybe I am crazy, but I actually don't mind the seedings in general for the C-USA tournament. I always thought it would be good to avoid Louisville on their home court until a possible championship game. Memphis looks to be much better than I realized. Marquette could be the best C-USA team, but I think the game yesterday gave us some confidence playing them tough on their court. Beating a pretty good team 3 times is not easy, so maybe we could win a matchup with them in the semifinals on a neutral court. If Louisville is still alive do you think their fans would root for us or Marquette to win that game?

It should be fun :)

Chris