Re:Seeding (was Cats Win)

[Jon Macomber]

To add a little:

If, by come great chance, we win the next 2 (vs. UAB and at MU) and
Louisville loses their last 2 (at Depaul and vs. UNCC) - the third seed
would come down to a coin-flip.  Either way, 2 wins gets us at least a 4
seed (and the last bye).  On paper, playing an extra game in the tournament
might not be too bad though, as a likely win vs. a "subpar" opponent would
sweeten our record a little bit.  However, not much can be called "likely"
this year...

So if UC wins out we get the 4 seed (maybe 3!).  If they lose out... well
let's not think about that, but needless to say, no 1st round bye.


*****Beating UAB and losing to MU is the most likely scenario.

If we beat UAB and lose to MU we finish 9-7 (6-6 in American).  If UNCC wins
at St. Louis on Wednesday they have to win at UL to finish 10-6 and get the
4th seed.  If St. Louis beats UNCC they have to win at ECU to finish 9-7
(7-5) and jump us (assuming UAB loses to Memphis and UNCC loses at UL).  If
UAB does beat Memphis we win the 3 way tie with St. Louis and UAB.  If UNCC
beats UL then St. Louis wins the 3 way tie.  IF UAB and UNCC both win, St.
Louis wins the 4 way tie at 9-7.

5 teams could finish 9-7 (UC, UNCC, STL, TULANE, UAB)

If UNCC wins out, they get the 4th seed.
We beat everyone head to head except St. Louis
If St. Louis wins out, they win any tiebreaker that doesn't involve UAB.
UAB cannot get the bye if they lose to UC.

To "simplify":

If we beat UAB, and STL beats UNCC - we get the 4th seed with a win over MU,
a STL loss at ECU, or UAB beats Memphis.

If we beat UAB and UNCC beats STL - we get the 4th seed with a win over MU
or a UNCC loss at UL



*****Losing to UAB and beating MU is the other 9-7 possibility.

First, for us to get the 4th seed, UAB would have to lose against Memphis to
finish 9-7.  This scenario gives Memphis the 1 seed (assuming they beat
Houston on Thursday).

UNCC would get it by winning out (even if UAB beats Memphis)
We would need Tulane to win out to win a 3way tie with UAB.
St. Louis could get it, but only with a 5 way tie

To simplify again,

If we lose to UAB and beat MU, we still get in if: UAB loses to Memphis,
Tulane wins out, St. Louis beats UNCC and loses at ECU, and then UNCC loses
to UL.

Whew!


*****So, if no one's head is hurting yet...

Our SOS should be about the same after our last 2 games.

Finishing 2-0 would give us an RPI of about 22
Finishing 1-1 would give us an RPI of about 27
Finishing 0-2 would give us an RPI of about 33 (danger zone!!)


Is it wrong to like doing this?

Jon M


----- Original Message -----
From: "Shinkle, Randy" <address@hidden>
To: <address@hidden>
Sent: Monday, March 03, 2003 2:12 PM
Subject: RE: [UC Basketball] Cats Win -- Cats Win -- Cats Win


> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: MURPHY, T. JASON [mailto:address@hidden
> > Sent: Sunday, March 02, 2003 3:53 PM
> > To: address@hidden
> > Subject: RE: [UC Basketball] Cats Win -- Cats Win -- Cats Win
> >
> >
> > Just trying to find something positive after last night's
> > debacle and thinking ahead. Is UC in the dance or not?
> > Depending upon what you read you get one opinion that they
> > are in given the RPI and quality wins but some other
> > so-called experts have them listed with about 9 other teams
> > as bubble sitters. I would hope that they could win one of
> > the next two putting them at 17-10 going into the CUSA
> > tourney. But are they in at that point or do they need
> > another win? This game at home against UAB is shaping up as a
> > "must" win now. UC has struggled in these weeknight games
> > against lesser conference opponents. Lastly, if they go in
> > the CUSA tourney needing a win, are they better off without
> > the first round bye playing a 12th seed? Right now it looks
> > like they are in a 3 way tie for the 4th seed with UAB and
> > Charlotte (at 8-6 also). SLU is also right there with a 7-7
> > What happens if UC, Charlotte and SLU finish 9-7 tied for the 4th seed?
>
>
> For that to happen:
>   - UC must beat UAB and lose to Marquette
>   - Saint Louis must beat Charlotte and East Carolina
>   - Charlotte, having lost at Saint Louis, must win at Louisville
>   - UAB, having lost to UC, must also lose at home to Memphis
>   - Tulane must lose to either South Florida or Southern Miss
>
> In that case, all 3 (UC, Charlotte and Saint Louis) would have split with
each other and with Louisville, and lost 2 to Marquette.  UC's and
Charlotte's division records would be 6-6, and Saint Louis' would be 7-5.
The better division record would give Saint Louis the #4 seed (see C-USA
tiebreaker B.2.) and Charlotte's 2 wins over DePaul, combined with UC's
split with the Blue Demons, would make Charlotte the #5 seed and UC the #6
seed (see C-USA tiebreaker B.3.).
> UC would be in much better shape to get the #4 seed if Charlotte beat
Saint Louis and then lost to Louisville, or if Charlotte lost both and Saint
Louis lost to East Carolina.  But UC might well be better off with the #5
seed.  That way, they get to play the #12 seed (probably Southern Miss) and
then (assuming they win) the #4 seed, which will not be any of the "big 3."
That's their best chance to get to 18 or 19 wins, which should be enough for
the NCAA selection committee.
> This will be much easier to project after Wednesday.
>
> Randy '78