RE: Cats Win -- Cats Win -- Cats Win

[Shinkle, Randy]

> -----Original Message-----
> From: MURPHY, T. JASON [mailto:address@hidden
> Sent: Sunday, March 02, 2003 3:53 PM
> To: address@hidden
> Subject: RE: [UC Basketball] Cats Win -- Cats Win -- Cats Win
>
>
> Just trying to find something positive after last night's 
> debacle and thinking ahead. Is UC in the dance or not? 
> Depending upon what you read you get one opinion that they 
> are in given the RPI and quality wins but some other 
> so-called experts have them listed with about 9 other teams 
> as bubble sitters. I would hope that they could win one of 
> the next two putting them at 17-10 going into the CUSA 
> tourney. But are they in at that point or do they need 
> another win? This game at home against UAB is shaping up as a 
> "must" win now. UC has struggled in these weeknight games 
> against lesser conference opponents. Lastly, if they go in 
> the CUSA tourney needing a win, are they better off without 
> the first round bye playing a 12th seed? Right now it looks 
> like they are in a 3 way tie for the 4th seed with UAB and 
> Charlotte (at 8-6 also). SLU is also right there with a 7-7 
> What happens if UC, Charlotte and SLU finish 9-7 tied for the 4th seed?


For that to happen:
  - UC must beat UAB and lose to Marquette
  - Saint Louis must beat Charlotte and East Carolina
  - Charlotte, having lost at Saint Louis, must win at Louisville
  - UAB, having lost to UC, must also lose at home to Memphis
  - Tulane must lose to either South Florida or Southern Miss

In that case, all 3 (UC, Charlotte and Saint Louis) would have split with each other and with Louisville, and lost 2 to Marquette.  UC's and Charlotte's division records would be 6-6, and Saint Louis' would be 7-5.  The better division record would give Saint Louis the #4 seed (see C-USA tiebreaker B.2.) and Charlotte's 2 wins over DePaul, combined with UC's split with the Blue Demons, would make Charlotte the #5 seed and UC the #6 seed (see C-USA tiebreaker B.3.).

UC would be in much better shape to get the #4 seed if Charlotte beat Saint Louis and then lost to Louisville, or if Charlotte lost both and Saint Louis lost to East Carolina.  But UC might well be better off with the #5 seed.  That way, they get to play the #12 seed (probably Southern Miss) and then (assuming they win) the #4 seed, which will not be any of the "big 3."  That's their best chance to get to 18 or 19 wins, which should be enough for the NCAA selection committee.

This will be much easier to project after Wednesday.

Randy '78