Louisville Preview

[jon breiner]

101 to 44.  79 to 55.  94 to 62.  167 to . Oh, sorry!  I was just thinking
about the prediction for the game this Wednesday against Louisville.  ESPN
is televising it at 7 PM EST, and my guess is they hope that the numbers I
started with do not happen.  Can UC win?  Sure, anything can happen.



Louisville, under Coach Rick Pitino, has had the rebirth they hoped for when
he was hired.  The 8th ranked Cardinals are 16-1 overall and 6-0 in CUSA.
After losing to Purdue by 2 points early in the year, they have run off 15
straight wins.  Louisville is a legitimate 10 deep and arguably can go
eleven.  Reece Gaines is the only player who averages more than 30 minutes.
The star guard has moved back to the point this year and has been the main
reason behind the resurgence, but not the only one.  Gaines is averaging 18
points and 5 assists per game.



How can UC win?



Rebound.  What a crazy concept, rebounding.  If Louisville has a weakness
besides the requirement of playing a first half (more on that later) it may
be rebounding.  But they are not deficient at it, just not great.
Center/forward Marvin Stone at 6-10 and 240 and forward Ellis Myles at 6-8
and 235 can get after the boards.  Myles was a bit stronger rebounding
earlier in the year, and his numbers have dropped off since Stone become
eligible after transferring form Kentucky, but you better get a body on him.
After that it is rebound by committee, similar to UC so it could come down
to whose committee does best.



Play a half court game.  UL is not always interested in creating turnovers
with their press (even though it can), but in wearing the other team out.
Break the press, set up the offense, run some time off and shorten the game.
If UC tries to run with UL, it will get ugly.  Defensively, get back after a
miss and limit their transition.



Make the Cardinals think the second half is still the first half.  This year
's UL team reminds me of the UC teams of 1992 and 1993.  Tenacious 94 foot
defense that wears teams out so that in the second half they wither and UL
is ready and stomps them.  Can you imagine how frustrating it would be to
see UC wilt at the end of the game?  I cannot imagine anything setting off
Huggins more.  I think the freshmen will find out why he has been imploring
them to work so hard all year.  UL has been down in the first half of 7
games by more than 10 points and won 6 of them.  In their last game against
IU they were down by 16 in the first half and by early in the second half
they had made a game of it.  They concluded the game by going on a 17-0 run
in the final minutes to win by 19.  Huggins will need to substitute
liberally to keep UC fresh.



Defense.  UC's suspect perimeter defense has not gotten a lot of mention
lately with their poor low post defense overshadowing it.  I think both are
equally important in this game.  Stone, Myles, and forward Luke Whitehead
and JUCO transfer Kendall Dartez can not be allowed to get the ball close or
back down and get easy baskets.  Louisville is not as physical as Marquette,
but they usually do not need to be, and UC can not let the Cardinals push
them around the way DePaul and Marquette did the last 2 games.  On the
perimeter, UL can get hot.  Six Cardinal players have shot 27 or more 3
pointers this year.  Reece Gaines and freshmen Taquan Dean and Francisco
Garcia are most likely to fire from deep, but watch guard Erik Brown who
shoots 54% from long range.



There has been talk by UC fans about going to a more guard oriented attack
since we are weak inside.  Thoughts of playing the freshmen more, rather or
not they have earned the playing time in practice.  I am so torn about doing
that in this game.  I would like to think that it would give UC a better
chance, but I think it would more likely end up in the worst loss of the
Huggins era.  Huggins will have to keep the players fresh, but I would be
careful in the substitution patterns.  One player who could make a
difference in this game is Tony Bobbitt.  The up tempo style UL favors plays
into his game perfectly.  The only thing that scares me is he is equally
likely, with enough minutes, to a) score 20+ points, b) commit 8 turnovers,
and c) let his defensive assignment score 20+ points.  But if you are going
to roll the dice, this may not only be the game to do it, but coming of his
late 12 point outburst against Marquette, he is riding a confidence level he
has not been able to maintain this year.  Of course, I expect Huggins to try
some new things, and I think increasing Bobbitt's playing time is most
likely, but I have been very bad at predicting what Huggins will do.  I
usually just take solace in the fact he tends to choose very well.



Sooooooo, 101 to 44.  79 to 55.  94 to 62.  167 to .  What will the final
score be?  As down as I am about the Bearcats, I have a funny feeling about
this game.  I think it may be closer than "paper" would suggest.  It may
come down to how well UC responds to the second half surge.  I was prepared
to predict a score like above, but while I think the Cats will lose, I think
it will be a bit closer:



UC 72  UL 80



jon b