Xavier Preview

[Jonathan Breiner]

While beating Xavier is not the most important thing to UC, it sure is fun for the fans.  Beating Memphis, Louisville, Marquette, or Charlotte means a lot more.  There are no banners hanging up in The Shoe stating: "Victories over Xavier", but there is one that says "CUSA Championships", and underneath, it also says "1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002".  Adding 2003 to that banner is more important, but damn it if you still don't want this game badly!  And regardless of what the players say in the press, they want it too.

 

There is a reversal of sorts this year.  I cannot remember the last time a Xavier team was picked to win on UC's home floor.  Since I am too lazy to research at the moment and not really a gambler anyway, I would guess during Tony's time as coach in the 80's.

 

Xavier, picked to win the A10, is led by pre-season first team All-American David West.  West has had his ups and downs in the Crosstown Shootout, but 2 years ago in the Shoe when Xavier upset the Bearcats, he scored 23 points and pulled down a game high 13 rebounds.  This season West is averaging nearly 20 points and 9 rebounds through 4 games.  He has been able to get to the foul line a lot, and has made more free throws (26) than field goals (25).  As a matter of fact, his one weakness has been shooting the ball.  Shooting a bit under 46% is not very good for a player who gets all the close looks he does.  Part of it is due to the "3-pointer disease".  West fancies himself a bit more of an outside player this year and is 1 of 6 from beyond the arc.  I would play off him and let him shoot.  I have no doubt he can beat UC down low, so I would try to make him prove he can beat you from the outside if that is what he wants.

 

Shooting guard Romain Sato has been as big as West this year.  Averaging 18 points and 9 rebounds per game, Sato provides the Musketeers with a strong 1-2 punch.  A streaky shooter, he has not quite found his usual rhythm from long range this year having made only 9 of 30 3-pointers, but he has shot inside of the arc well and more often than in the past.

 

Xavier has more than a 1-2 punch, they have the triple threat.  Point guard Lionel Chalmers has led the team in scoring in 2 of their 4 games.  Averaging 15 points and nearly 5 assists per game, Xavier will sometimes move him to the shooting guard spot so he can score.  Freshman Dedrick Finn will then man the point.  In a game like this though, I think Xavier coach Thad Matta will keep the ball in Chalmers hands as much as possible.

 

Things in UC's Favor:

 

1. Huggins has 5 days to prepare a game plan with a nice blueprint from Stanford.

 

2.  The Shoe.

 

3. Confidence after their play against Valpo.

 

Things in Xavier's favor:

 

1. West, Chalmers, and Sato.  

 

2. Revenge Factor after last year's blowout loss.

 

3. Confidence in play since Stanford.

 

 

Keys for UC:

 

1. Rebound.  Last year, UC outrebounded Xavier by 20.  This year, Stanford outrebounded Xavier by 9.  UC is not a very good rebounding team this year and must break near even or Xavier could run away with this game.

 

2.  David Young and Anthony Myles.  West, Sato, and Chalmers are going to score simply because they will take 70% or more of the shots.  Young and Myles are the next best options and you cannot let either one go off.  Neither played well against Stanford and in Xavier's only other game against a quality team, Purdue, they played well and Xavier won by 15.  Because he is from Cincinnati, Keith Jackson gets an honorable mention here.

 

3. Defensive intensity.  Against Valpo, UC played very well defensively for 30-35 minutes.  Against Xavier it will require a full 40.

 

 

I have gone back and forth for weeks about this pick.  Before the season, I thought UC could handle Xavier.  After Xavier's loss to Stanford, I had no doubts.  Then UC's sporadic play coupled with Xavier's resurgence put doubts in my mind.  I have been picking Xavier by 5 for the past week.  Then today I start my preview and I really do not want to pick Xavier.  I picked them last year, with my head, and they got blown out at the Cintas Center.  So this year, with the change in venue to The Shoe, I will pick with my heart.  Thank God I am not a gambler!

 

UC 61  Xavier 59

 

jon b