Logan for POY?
Posted By: John HallFebruary 16, 2002
To my mind there are three serious candidates for Player of the Year:
Logan, Williams, and Drew Gooden of Kansas.
First of all, unless there's one player far and away above everyone else, (see David Robinson), the POY should come from a top-15 team. He should be the most visible player on his own team, which rules out people like Carlos Boozer and Kirk Hinrich, and in his own conference, which rules out
Dwyane Wade (sorry Coach Crean!). He should excel in all areas of the game, which I think rules out Casey Jacobsen (though, to be fair, I haven't seen much of Stanford this year). If Duke continues to dominate Maryland it will be hard to vote for Juan Dixon over Williams, so I've left him out, too.
Here's how the big three stack up statistically.
Of course a player can pad his stats against lesser opponents (Southern Miss?), so let's look how the three players have done in the biggest games. Here I've been a bit subjective, but I've tried to include games against current top 25, tough conference games on the road, and any game
where the player's team lost.
Williams
pts asts
win 95-92 vs UK* 38 4
loss 76-77 at FSU 26 6
win 76-57 at NCSt 10 11
win 99-78 vs Maryland 34 8
win 103-80 vs Wake 23 7
win 88-78 at BC 15 4
win 94-81 vs Virginia 27 6
win 108-71 vs NCSt 20 5
Gooden
pts rbs
loss 91-93 vs BallSt* 31 10
win 105-97 at Arizona 23 15
win 83-76 vs Wake 11 8
loss 77-87 at UCLA 22 10
win 79-61 at OK St 17 7
win 74-67 vs OK 19 10
win 105-73 vs Missouri 26 10
win 108-81 vs Tex Tech 21 10
win 110-103 at Texas 28 7
Logan
pts asts
loss 62-69 at Ok St 31 0
win 75-55 at Xavier 22 7
win 90-56 vs Miss St* 40 1
loss 74-60 at Marq 15 6
win 85-66 at Char 24 6
win 103-94 at Wake 30 7
* neutral court
This comparison is a wash. Logan didn't have a great game at Marquette, but he played better than the rest of the team. You could say that Williams was personally responsible for the loss at FSU, since he went 0-6 from the line down the stretch, but otherwise all three players have stepped it up in the big games. Note that UC has yet to play a single "big" game at the Shoe.
Now let's take a look at the supporting casts.
Kansas
Collison 15.6 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.2 bpg
Hinrich 15.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 5.7 apg
Boschee 13.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.6 apg
Collison is shooting 61% from the floor. Hinrich shoots 57%, incredible for a guard. He also shoots 47% from 3. Gooden has been Kansas' leading scorer in 14 of 24 games.
Duke
Boozer 18.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg
Dunleavy 17.9 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 2.3 apg, 2.4 spg
Jones 12.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg
Boozer shoots 63% from the floor. One could argue that he's having a better year than Williams. Dunleavy shoots 50%, 39% from 3. Williams has been Duke's leading scorer in 13 of 24 games. Chris Duhon is not mentioned above, but he's averaging 9.8 ppg and 6.2 apg.
UC
Stokes 13.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg
McElroy 9.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.3 apg
Maxiell 7.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg
Stokes and McElroy combine to shoot about 25% from 3. Maxiell is shooting 58% from the floor. Logan has been UC's leading scorer in 18 of 26 games.
How can UC be #5 in the country when our players have such underwhelming stats? It's called defense. Here are the average game scores for the three teams:
Kansas 93-76
Duke 92-71
UC 78-58
Kansas and Duke are 1-2 in the nation in scoring, UC is #4 in scoring defense.
Here is a made-up stat, but I think it gives some sense of a player's impact on a game. Take the number of points a player scores, and divide it by the number of points his team gives up on defense. For example, if you score 10 and your team gives up 100 that's 10/100 = 0.10. Or, if you score 41 and your team gives up 37 that's 41/37 = 1.11.
Computing this stat for the three players we get:
Logan 0.39
Williams 0.30
Gooden 0.28
This means that on average, Logan scores almost 40% of the points his team needs to win. You might wonder if he leads the nation in this stat. Indeed he does, and it's not even that close, statistically. Here are the top 15:
Logan (UC) 0.39
Conley (VMI) 0.36
Domercant (East. Ill.) 0.36
Chatman (Tex. Pan. Am.) 0.35
McLeod (Bowling Green) 0.34
Watson (UMKC) 0.34
Bremer (St. Bonav.) 0.33
Ely (Fresno St.) 0.33
Greer (Temple) 0.33
Savovic (Hawaii) 0.33
Bell (BC) 0.32
Jacobsen (Stanford) 0.32
Stapleton (Austin Peay) 0.32
Wade (Marquette) 0.31
Bailey (Loyola Chi.) 0.30
Blizzard (UNC-Wil.) 0.30
Penigar (Utah St.) 0.30
Williams (Duke) 0.30
What does it all mean? I think if you base your player of the year vote completely on the stats, then you should vote for Logan. But of course this isn't how it works, nor should it. But when you add the fact that UC was not even ranked to begin the season and is now looking at a #1 seed, and that Logan is the only consistent scoring option on his team, while Kansas and Duke are stocked with McD's All-Americans and future first-round NBA picks, there should be no doubt.
- John in Mn
p.s. Of course, if Wade goes for 40 next week and Marquette beats UC at the Shoe, Logan may not even be POY in the CUSA. Odds of this happening? I may have to eat my words, but I say little to none.
Logan, Williams, and Drew Gooden of Kansas.
First of all, unless there's one player far and away above everyone else, (see David Robinson), the POY should come from a top-15 team. He should be the most visible player on his own team, which rules out people like Carlos Boozer and Kirk Hinrich, and in his own conference, which rules out
Dwyane Wade (sorry Coach Crean!). He should excel in all areas of the game, which I think rules out Casey Jacobsen (though, to be fair, I haven't seen much of Stanford this year). If Duke continues to dominate Maryland it will be hard to vote for Juan Dixon over Williams, so I've left him out, too.
Here's how the big three stack up statistically.
ppg rpg apg fg% 3fg% ft% otherSuperficially they look pretty even. Logan is 8th in the country in scoring, Williams is 16th. Gooden is 5th in rebounding, 21st in scoring.
Logan 22.6 2.9 5.4 47.3 40.6 87.5 2.5 tpg
Williams 21.5 3.7 5.4 46.6 39.2 65.8 3.7 tpg
Gooden 20.9 11.2 1.8 51.3 22.7 74.3 2.1 spg
Of course a player can pad his stats against lesser opponents (Southern Miss?), so let's look how the three players have done in the biggest games. Here I've been a bit subjective, but I've tried to include games against current top 25, tough conference games on the road, and any game
where the player's team lost.
Williams
pts asts
win 95-92 vs UK* 38 4
loss 76-77 at FSU 26 6
win 76-57 at NCSt 10 11
win 99-78 vs Maryland 34 8
win 103-80 vs Wake 23 7
win 88-78 at BC 15 4
win 94-81 vs Virginia 27 6
win 108-71 vs NCSt 20 5
Gooden
pts rbs
loss 91-93 vs BallSt* 31 10
win 105-97 at Arizona 23 15
win 83-76 vs Wake 11 8
loss 77-87 at UCLA 22 10
win 79-61 at OK St 17 7
win 74-67 vs OK 19 10
win 105-73 vs Missouri 26 10
win 108-81 vs Tex Tech 21 10
win 110-103 at Texas 28 7
Logan
pts asts
loss 62-69 at Ok St 31 0
win 75-55 at Xavier 22 7
win 90-56 vs Miss St* 40 1
loss 74-60 at Marq 15 6
win 85-66 at Char 24 6
win 103-94 at Wake 30 7
* neutral court
This comparison is a wash. Logan didn't have a great game at Marquette, but he played better than the rest of the team. You could say that Williams was personally responsible for the loss at FSU, since he went 0-6 from the line down the stretch, but otherwise all three players have stepped it up in the big games. Note that UC has yet to play a single "big" game at the Shoe.
Now let's take a look at the supporting casts.
Kansas
Collison 15.6 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.2 bpg
Hinrich 15.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 5.7 apg
Boschee 13.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.6 apg
Collison is shooting 61% from the floor. Hinrich shoots 57%, incredible for a guard. He also shoots 47% from 3. Gooden has been Kansas' leading scorer in 14 of 24 games.
Duke
Boozer 18.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg
Dunleavy 17.9 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 2.3 apg, 2.4 spg
Jones 12.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg
Boozer shoots 63% from the floor. One could argue that he's having a better year than Williams. Dunleavy shoots 50%, 39% from 3. Williams has been Duke's leading scorer in 13 of 24 games. Chris Duhon is not mentioned above, but he's averaging 9.8 ppg and 6.2 apg.
UC
Stokes 13.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg
McElroy 9.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.3 apg
Maxiell 7.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg
Stokes and McElroy combine to shoot about 25% from 3. Maxiell is shooting 58% from the floor. Logan has been UC's leading scorer in 18 of 26 games.
How can UC be #5 in the country when our players have such underwhelming stats? It's called defense. Here are the average game scores for the three teams:
Kansas 93-76
Duke 92-71
UC 78-58
Kansas and Duke are 1-2 in the nation in scoring, UC is #4 in scoring defense.
Here is a made-up stat, but I think it gives some sense of a player's impact on a game. Take the number of points a player scores, and divide it by the number of points his team gives up on defense. For example, if you score 10 and your team gives up 100 that's 10/100 = 0.10. Or, if you score 41 and your team gives up 37 that's 41/37 = 1.11.
Computing this stat for the three players we get:
Logan 0.39
Williams 0.30
Gooden 0.28
This means that on average, Logan scores almost 40% of the points his team needs to win. You might wonder if he leads the nation in this stat. Indeed he does, and it's not even that close, statistically. Here are the top 15:
Logan (UC) 0.39
Conley (VMI) 0.36
Domercant (East. Ill.) 0.36
Chatman (Tex. Pan. Am.) 0.35
McLeod (Bowling Green) 0.34
Watson (UMKC) 0.34
Bremer (St. Bonav.) 0.33
Ely (Fresno St.) 0.33
Greer (Temple) 0.33
Savovic (Hawaii) 0.33
Bell (BC) 0.32
Jacobsen (Stanford) 0.32
Stapleton (Austin Peay) 0.32
Wade (Marquette) 0.31
Bailey (Loyola Chi.) 0.30
Blizzard (UNC-Wil.) 0.30
Penigar (Utah St.) 0.30
Williams (Duke) 0.30
What does it all mean? I think if you base your player of the year vote completely on the stats, then you should vote for Logan. But of course this isn't how it works, nor should it. But when you add the fact that UC was not even ranked to begin the season and is now looking at a #1 seed, and that Logan is the only consistent scoring option on his team, while Kansas and Duke are stocked with McD's All-Americans and future first-round NBA picks, there should be no doubt.
- John in Mn
p.s. Of course, if Wade goes for 40 next week and Marquette beats UC at the Shoe, Logan may not even be POY in the CUSA. Odds of this happening? I may have to eat my words, but I say little to none.
