Those of you who will read all of this ... let me applaud you in
advance. The thing is, if you're going to read any, you need to read it
all, because I'm not sure it will make sense if you just skim it. My
intent is to express 2 opinions:  What UC's rotation needs to look like
next year, and given that, what could be changed right now. In the
process you'll get my 2 cents (plus) on most of today's discussions.

The first order of business next year is finding a replacement for
Maxiell. This requires us to recognize that Max has developed a very
solid mid-range game. He typically shoots well from 12 to 16 feet out,
in the "short corners" or near the foul line, and he can occasionally
put the ball on the floor once from those areas and get to the rim. Add
to this his defense and rebounding and you have a tough player to
replace.

Hicks will not replace Max, because he's a very different player. Eric
doesn't have Max's mid-range game, but he can get a lot done in the
post. Simply stated, Eric is a 5 and Max is a 4. And that's OK. Not
many high-level teams will start a 6-6 center next year, but UC will.

So, who *will* replace Max?  I think there's 3 possibilities. Remember,
we're looking for a 4, a rebounder and post defender with a mid-range
game offensively. Some have noted that Juco recruit Cedric McGowan's
rebounding numbers aren't that great, which may mean that his scoring is
coming in other ways (and not from the free throw line). So, perhaps he
has an effective mid-range game.

Another possibility is the yet-unsigned final recruit for next year.
It's been well documented that a Juco post player is the most likely
outcome, unless UC can steal Jared Carter away from UK. Based on what
we know today, Torre Johnson is the first option, and he appears to be
very similar to McGowan, although perhaps a better rebounder.

But both of these guys will be newcomers, and therefore more suited to
back up the 4 (and the 5 on occasion, if necessary). UC will need more
of a proven commodity, and it will need to be someone who can provide
some offense from this position. So, who on the current roster has
size, a mid-range game, the potential to rebound and defend the post,
and the ability to give UC an advantage at times via a mismatch?  Sounds
to me like Kirkland.

I've come to a pretty firm conclusion about Armein that supports what
I'm suggesting. Armein is athletic and a talented shooter, but he's
*not* a natural basketball player. I say this because he's a *hesitant*
player. Watch what happens when UC starts rotating the ball on the
perimeter. As soon as it gets to Armein, everything stops, because he
typically hesitates with the ball. He's not a confident passer by any
means. Whenever he looks like he's going to actually do something, he
almost always ends up taking a shot, sometimes an ill-advised one. The
rare exceptions are typically turnovers, like when he fired a jump-pass
at Hicks last night, which Eric had no idea was coming. This is not
going to improve much, either. While Armein may learn what to do in
some additional specific situations, his basketball IQ isn't likely to
change.

So, I have to disagree with those who are fed up with Jihad and want to
give Armein the ball to start the offense. That will *not* improve UC's
offensive execution. Where Armein can help UC is as a mismatch at the
4, taking his man outside and then beating him off the dribble to either
shoot an open 16-footer or draw a shooting foul. Yes, it's a risky
approach on the defensive end, but Armein is athletic enough to rebound
and block shots better as a 4 than he can playing on the perimeter. He
will only be a liability against teams with 2 solid post players, such
as Louisville this year with 2 of George, Myles and Palacios in the
game. In those cases, play the Juco recruits more. Armein would match
up OK with Powell of Illinois, or with Danielus of Wake Forest, for
example.

The problem is, I would expect Armein to resist this idea, perhaps very
strenuously. I'm sure he thinks he's an NBA 2-guard in waiting, in part
because the coaching staff has (to some degree) supported that notion.
My answer would be, "Armein, watch the tape of this season and see what
happens when you have the ball. You look like a scoring forward trying
to be a point guard. A poor man's Francisco Garcia, if you will (and
he's not as good as many think he is)."  I really believe the evidence
supports me here.

So, next year I have Kirkland starting at the 4, backed up by McGowan
and another Juco recruit. This leaves Hicks as the starter at the 5,
backed up by another true post player, Herrera. For another 5 fouls and
spot minutes at the 5, let Souley play some. When he's in, play
strictly a 2-3 zone with Souley in the paint, and tell him to block
shots if anyone comes close, or otherwise hit the glass hard.

Now let's tackle the perimeter. With Armein at the 4, White and Bright
can share the 3. This puts both of them in their more natural position,
and together they could give UC a lot of production, in scoring, passing
*and* rebounding. In fact, this could well be UC's strongest spot on
the floor. They could also play together at times, with James sliding
to the 2, and in fact they would likely be the starters at the beginning
of the season.

That leaves the guard positions. Look at what will be available:
Seniors Moore and Muhammad, and talented freshmen Banks (effectively),
Downey and Evans. While I've previously advocated having Chadd take a
year off, that's just too risky given the uncertainties surrounding the
freshmen and the needed improvement from Jihad.

See, the thing with Jihad is that he's just like Armein, but in a
different way. While Armein stands and holds the ball when he doesn't
know what to do, Jihad dribbles the ball furiously in random directions
(Lavin: "like a chipmunk"). Both are their own form of hesitation. And
both of them, when they decide to do something, usually shoot the ball,
whether or not it's a good idea. The difference is, while Armein can
better help the team by creating a mismatch elsewhere, Jihad either
plays outside or sits. And, unless the freshmen are *all* ready to play
major minutes, Jihad can't sit, not with Chadd's physical challenges.

So, my approach would be to treat them all as "combo" guards. Start
Jihad with White and Bright (to start the season anyway), and rotate the
others in as 1s or 2s. Let performance and chemistry dictate playing
time. The idea would be, if Banks and Downey (for example) are really
the best pair, considering all the facets of the 2 positions (scoring,
defending, running the offense, breaking pressure, etc.), then let them
prove it early on and start getting the bulk of the minutes. By the
same token, if it's a mature Jihad and a healthier Moore, or a
high-scoring pair of Banks and Evans, or whatever, figure it out in time
to get a smooth rotation in place by the first Big East conference game.

A big part of this would be to get away from having someone at the point
on offense. Most guards shoot better from the wing than from
straightaway. They can also drive or enter the ball into the post
better from the wing. Watch Jihad and you'll see this. In particular,
notice that when Jihad comes from the wing and pulls up inside the arc,
he makes a pretty high percentage.

My single-most durable image from the Huggins era at UC was Midnight
Madness in '91. During the brief scrimmage, it was immediately apparent
that UC had 4 quick guards who could all shoot, pass, handle and defend,
headlined by the baby-faced surprise from Milwaukee (by way of Texas)
named VanExel. The special feeling I had for that team started right
from the beginning, even though I had no real idea what was to come.
More than anything else, this is what I'm hoping to find again, what
Illinois has that I want for UC.

In summary, here's a depth chart for next year, with the 1s and 2s (and
their order) being fairly interchangeable:
   1:  Muhammad, Moore, Downey
   2:  White, Banks, Evans
   3:  Bright, White
   4:  Kirkland, McGowan, spring Juco recruit
   5:  Hicks, Herrera, Souleymane

But what about right now?  That's my main purpose in writing this.
Looking at what could work next year, I'd do the following immediately:
   - Switch Bright's and Kirkland's roles. Armein becomes Max's
backup, and Max slides over to the 5 when Hicks goes out. Armein's
minutes are roughly the same, but not the amount of time he has the
ball.
   - Bright becomes White's backup at the 3, with James also getting
some minutes at the 2 like he does now. I think it's time for Bright to
start getting more minutes regularly, unless White's defense is really
needed against the opposing 3.
   - Jihad and Nick start, backed up by Lucas and Moore (and White),
and all share responsibility for running the offense and defending the
perimeter. Play Chadd as much as possible, and otherwise let Lucas have
some of Jihad's minutes. When he does play, Jihad has the ball less
than he does now.

These changes would not only improve the overall play of the current
team, in large part by getting the ball out of the hands of the
"hesitant" Kirkland and Muhammad more, but also set the stage for a more
effective rotation next year. I realize it's probably too late to do
this now, but it's the best thing I can think of to overcome this team's
biggest weaknesses, other than the unsolvable post depth problem.

Well, that was one long IMHO. Thanks for making it this far.