Here is a look at UC's potential for RPI placement for the rest of the year.

With numbers through Wed. 2-25-04 - UC stands at #27 RPI (#61 SOS).  The following analysis is a little dry, but gives an interesting snapshot of where UC's RPI could end up.

Rest of CUSA: Memphis #19, UL #23, UNCC #30, UAB#32

Also add Depaul at #51 - Saturday still has to hurt for them. If they hold on and don't give up those 50 2nd half points and win that game they would be standing at RPI #41 with a 7 game win streak (winning 10 of last 11).

Anyway, with 3 regular season games left UC could end with the following records and corresponding RPI (assuming SOS stays same and also assuming all rpi:rank stays constant):

3-0 = 22-5 = .6185 #19 
2-1 = 21-6 = .6092 #30 
1-2 = 20-7 = .6000 #34 
0-3 = 19-8 = .5907 #42 

A look at CUSA ending possibilities - assume 1st round bye for finishing 3-0 or 2-1, no bye if 0-3, and both with and without bye for 1-2.

3-0 = 22-5
0-1 (22-6) = .6112 = 30
1-1 (23-6) = .6130 = 27
2-1 (24-6) = .6148 = 23
3-0 (25-5) = .6231 = 16

2-1 = 21-6
0-1 (21-7) = .6023 = 32
1-1 (22-7) = .6044 = 31
2-1 (23-7) = .6064 = 31
3-0 (24-6) = .6148 = 23

1-2 = 20-7
0-1 (20-8) = .5933 = 40
1-1 (21-8) = .5958 = 37
2-1 (22-8) = .5981 = 35
3-1 (23-8) = .6002 = 33
3-0 (23-7) = .6064 = 31
4-0 (24-7) = .6083 = 31

0-3 = 19-8
0-1 (19-9) = .5844 = 47
1-1 (20-9) = .5872 = 43
2-1 (21-9) = .5898 = 42
3-1 (22-9) = .5922 = 40
4-0 (23-8) = .6002 = 33

With a quick look it's easy to see that unless we win the next 3 games we'll probably end up with an RPI somewhere in the 30s.  

Also note that if we finish 3-0 our last 10 record will be 7-3 no matter how we do in the cusa tournament (unless we win it then 8-2).  Similarly, finishing 2-1 guarantees us a 6-4 last 10 (7-3 if we win tourney).  So finishing 3-0 or 2-1 would not only lock our RPI below 32, but guarantee us at least a 6-4 finish.

But we do have an RPI ace in the hole.  Obviously our SOS will increase with strong games remaining vs. RPIs 30, 51, and 19.  However note that it did drop slightly after our game against SLU (by only .0006 though).

I'm going to assume that after the next 3 games our SOS will increase by 1.4% to .5607 (corresponds to #46 SOS instead of #61).  The rationale for this is explained in painful detail at the bottom (not for the faint of heart).

But this improved SOS will increase the above predictions a couple ranks.  For example, A 6-0 win out would then show a .6289 RPI - currently good for #14 (a 2 place increase from our old SOS).  For the cynics, a lose out 0-4 = .5902 = #42, the increased SOS providing a 5 slot jump.  A 5-1 finish = .6205=#17 and a 3-2 finish=.6102=#30.  

So we can look for a nice boost from an increased SOS rating.  Regardless, it appears that if we finish the regular season 3-0 or 2-1 then no matter how we do in the tournament our RPI should be 30 or lower and our last 10 will show a winning record.  A 1-2 finish will demand some tournament wins to get the RPI below 30.

There are other seeding qualifications - a big win on the road against UNCC would be a huge help (our only big road win is Marquette).

Anyway, the cats still hold their destiny.  Thankfully the games are played on the court and not on a calculator.

Jon M

WARNING COMPLICATED BORING LOOK INTO S.O.S. BELOW!

Here's where it gets "interesting" (if your eyes have already glazed over this won't help).  
Anyway, the average RPI of our previous opponents is .5329 and the RPI for our remaining reg. season opponents is .6017.  After those 3 games our opponents avg. RPI would be .5405, a 1.43% increase (not including possible results of those 3 games).  Statistically this assumes a lot of things - but it still gives us a rough estimate of how our remaining games will affect (strengthen) our rating.  

If we make a big assumption that increases in our opponent's RPI match the increases in our SOS, we can then assume that the last 3 games will increase our SOS by 1.43%.  Yes that's a big assumption, but maybe a good one, as our remaining teams Win% is .750, compared to previous opp. Win% of .546.  Since our direct opponents Win% accounts for half the RPI (2/3 of the SOS), the much better remaining teams' Win% should give us a nice boost.

Of course there are a lot of variables and assumptions that can and will come into play, but that gives a nice estimate of a 1.43% SOS increase.  Again I want to stress that this is not an exact measurement, but an educated guess comparing the strength of our remaining games to our previous games.  Also, it may be too hard to assume how 1-3 cusa tourney games will affect our SOS - a matchup with a lower ranked team will decrease it, but a good team will increase it - but after 27 games the fluxuations become smaller.  So to simplify things, let's just assume the 1.4% increase will hold up throughout the CUSA tourney.

So if we look at a possible SOS of .5607 (a 1.4% increase) that would correspond to #46 SOS (Mis.State) and show an increase from the current #61 SOS.